After beating the Ravens, Jacksonville is the favorite against the LionsImage: Getty Images
As the NFL season draws to a close, bettors know which teams are good, which teams are bad, and which teams have no chance of making the postseason. All of this will play a role in how betting lines are created, change throughout the week and how they are wagered on. Often the favorites get the most bets because bettors know which team is better. However, occasionally an underdog will squeak through the cracks and get the chance to trigger a surprise, but this time bettors see through.
According to OddsChecker US, despite being a 0.5-point underdog at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Lions receive 70 percent of the bets in their favor. And to be honest, I still think that number is low.
This seems like an obvious case of “What have you done for me lately?” After Jacksonville clinched an exciting one-point win over Baltimore, the odds makers appeared inclined to make the Jaguars favorites in their following game, despite having a terrible history as street favorites. Do you know the last time Jacksonville was street favored? Week 1 of 2021 against fellow punching bag Houston. The Jags lost by 16. Jacksonville has not won a game on the road in which they were favored since 2019, when the team beat the Bengals 27-17. Cincy finished this season 2-14. It’s safe to say that this year’s Lions may be a little better than the Bengals.
Detroit just came off a 28-25 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The Lions lost by three points to a Super Bowl contender, but are the underdogs home now? This is recency bias. Yes, Trevor Lawrence led a great game-winning drive to beat Baltimore, but you can’t deny the Lions had far better games overall. A three-point loss for the Eagles. A four-point loss to the Vikings. A three-point loss to the Seahawks. A four-point loss to the Dolphins. Wins a hot squad of Chicago Bears and the New York Giants. They held Aaron Rodgers to nine points! Jacksonville, on the other hand, lost to the Giants. The Jags lost to the Eagles by eight, and Philly has been less than impressive as the season progressed. Their only impressive wins were in Baltimore and a 38-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers… back in Week 3.
Yes, the Lions’ defense is terrible, but the Jaguars’ aren’t much better. Detroit ranks last in yards allowed (414.5); the Jaguars are 24th (362.9). Both teams rely on turnovers to sustain their offense in games, and while Jacksonville has secured more takeaways on the season than Detroit (16-14), more than half of the Jags’ takeaways came in the first three weeks of the season, when they started 2-1. On the other hand, Detroit has forced at least one turnover in every game since Week 1. Yes, Jacksonville has resumed its takeaway game in recent weeks after forcing six in its last three contests, but the Lions’ offense has committed just three turnovers in their last five games.
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Also, Amon-Ra St. Brown will be a problem for the Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars D passed 146 yards to Davante Adams three weeks ago and 134 yards to Michael Pittman just weeks earlier. Receivers with high goal percentages on their offense tend to do phenomenally well against Jacksonville’s secondary, and St. Brown is ninth in goal percentage (28.5 percent) and first in goals per route. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the most dedicated wide receivers in the NFL, and the Jaguars haven’t shown they know how to defend against someone this dynamic. Considering that St. Brown’s greatest strength is his YAC ability and the Jaguars have accumulated the fifth most YAC allowed and the second most missed tackles in the NFL. That’s just more bad news for the Duval County Cats.
After American bettors lost heaps of money betting on the US men’s national soccer team to beat the Netherlands in the round of 16, it’s good to see more bettors coming to their senses and betting on the Lions, even if they do are outsiders. While anything can happen on any given Sunday, the Lions have been too good of late to allow the Jaguars an easy win. I take this +0.5 line every day of the week.
